Super Tuesday

The tone in this year's GOP primary season has consistently been one of “Romney's not quite making the case.” I realize that the news people have to find some angle to dish. But, I don't think it is correct and it's becoming tiresome. (If he is the “establishment” choice that is being forced upon the voters, I would think the establishment would quell all the talk of the difficulty he has convincing the voters.)

Disclosure: I do have a dog in this fight. I think Romney is the best man for the job and have made contributions to his campaign. I am LDS (but, I didn't support Huntsman.)

Now, the race may be far from over. But, I've taken a look at some of the numbers and am prepared to make a case: Romney actually had a great night on Super Tuesday 2012; and he is arguably in a better position now than McCain was last time at a similar juncture.

Three of the states Romney won last night, Ohio, Virginia, and Vermont, he made HUGE gains in over his performance in the 2008 primary. Last time around he only had 3%, 4%, and 5% of the vote respectively and placed very low. Granted Santorum and Gingrich weren't on the ballot in Virginia last night. But, that isn't Mitt's fault nor that of his staff.

Mitt may have only eeked out a win in Ohio (and earlier in Michigan.) But, he won in the conservative parts of Ohio as well as in the liberal parts of Ohio. He is way ahead of the game in the overall delegate count, and is way  ahead in the overall popular vote count (3,196,326 to 1,957,727 for Santorum.) I did an analysis of each of the primaries as if the candidates were competing in the Olympics. I awarded them Gold, Silver, and Bronze medals for their finishes. I also then calculated a medal count score awarding them 3 points for a first place finish, 2 for a second, and 1 for a third. Romney is ahead by 29% using this metric. An interesting point: Ron Paul scored ahead of Newt Gingrich in this medal count scoring.

Mitt has improved his performance in most states over the 2008 campaign. In those states where he hasn't done as well, it appears to be Ron Paul and not Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich who is most often  taking voters away from Mitt. The argument could be made that, if someone should drop out of the race, it should be Newt Gingrich. But, I like to remind people that Ron Paul really shouldn't be running as a Republican. He is as Libertarian as they come.  He just wouldn't have a forum for debates and such if he ran as a Libertarian.

This year's race is formatted to be drawn out longer than it was in 2008. Last time “Super Tuesday” was on 5 February and they had completed 31 races by then compared to 23 this time (even one month later.) Mitt dropped out last time on 7 February. If you look at 2008 totals, it looks like Huckabee was the second place finisher. But, when Mitt dropped out he was second in the delegate count. Huckabee gained 59 more delegates after Mitt dropped out. And, after 5 February it was essentially a two-man race, with hanger on Ron Paul in the mix until the very end.

By Super Tuesday in 2008, John McCain had completed 31 primaries and his “medal count” score stood at 61. (BTW Romney was dead even in “medal count score” with McCain when he dropped out in 2008.) This time around after only 23 races Romney's score is 58. John McCain was in better shape in 2008 only because he won California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey, all with large delegate numbers, a total of 338. Those races have yet be contested in 2012.

I might be cutting more slack for Romney than for the others, I admit. But, I trust him...because I have a good idea what kind of a person he is (his service in the Church is testament to that) and he has shown many skills that this country badly needs. Many people are too young to remember Reagan before he became President. We can look back and see that he came off as conservative in the Presidency. And he was. But, much of that came as he matured. And he didn't govern from the far right. I see some of the same qualities in Romney. I have a very conservative outlook, and Mitt appears best to suit my conservative principles. I expect he will appear more conservative after he is elected and allowed to operate.

Mitt and his staff know that there is more room in the middle for votes than at either end. I can draw an analogy from my kids' sparring in Kung Fu. Often their Sifu will have them take on two people. The first principle you use when fighting against two people is you position yourself and move around such that one of your opponents has to fight through the other opponent to get to you. The Santorum and  Gingrich campaigns are trying to appeal to the most conservative factions. But, when they go looking for more voters to support them, the only place they can look to is in the middle. And, that is where Mitt has staked his ground.

It's a little comical when Santorum, Gingrich, or Paul point out that Romney has access to more funds than they do. In 2008 Mitt spent a lot of his own money to campaign. That may be one reason he pulled out earlyish when he was in second place. The bulk of his funds this time have come from donors. That's another metric that looks a lot like the votes that the others aren't getting.

He is a great analyst, decision maker, business leader. An administrator, not a politician, the man we need to bring us back from the brink.

Romneycare is arguably Romney's biggest problem. But, there is more difference between the Massachusetts program and Obama's program than even Mitt has noted. Once, he becomes the nominee, this goes away because Obama is not going to attack him on it. That is the president's biggest piece of political baggage. Once again Obama would have to fight through Mitt to get to the voters he was trying to pick up, and upset his leftmost base in the process.

The issue that will be the at the forefront between Obama and Romney will be the 1% versus the 99%. This is the issue that leftists want to campaign on. They think they can hurt Romney here. Don't buy into the establishment candidate argument. The left will try to tell the country that it was establishment Wall Street who gave us Romney. I don't think it will work.

-Todd Lillywhite