DooWop

That's Laney there in the middle with the red belt.

McMillan has kinda had a theme this year with its activities. They had a sock hop just a month or so ago.

When Laney told me she wanted to audition for a play at school, I thought that it would be fun and she might even get one of the more demanding roles. She ended up in the chorus with plenty to do and in reality after watching the play, the kids in the lead roles were quite talented.

It was called Doo Wop Wed Widing Hood. You can find videos on YouTube of other groups putting it on. It was quite cute, sorta like Compleat Works of Shakespeare for the fairy tale genre.

The boy who played the wolf had a very nice voice and was not afraid to sing out. One of the Rosen girls played little red riding hood, and she really was fantastic in my opinion. She wasn't perfect, but she was so earnest and painfully cute. It was a fun thing for the kids to do.

L.A. Trip

I don't really like traveling for work. I have a handful of times. Most notably was when I flew up to Thompson Falls, Montana to sign a single heir who was getting about $400k.

A couple of weeks ago Tom asked if I would be willing to visit Chris in Los Angeles for a couple of days. Chris is fairly isolated from all of us and enjoys a visit now and then. I went the Thursday and Friday after President's holiday weekend. It would have been good to put a little more advance planning into the trip. On such short notice, I didn't get a great deal on the Flight (it was about $500.) Also, I was left to myself to make lodging arrangements.

ARB has an office real close to the courthouse that I could have stayed at. But, Tom said it wasn't the best accomodations. But, I didn't realize that the office is right next to a hotel that probably would have been fine for me to stay at. All I did was google hotels close to the courthouse and tried to pick the closest one that didn't look crappy. I don't remember the Omni coming up in that search. It looks like I could have saved ARB$40 on the room and myself having to walk 4 blocks further.

Anyway, I stayed at the Biltmore which looks and sounds really nice. The lobby and main public rooms are gorgeous. But, the room itself actually wasn't as nice as the Salt Lake City Marriott. I thought about staying with Kim or someone. But, then I would have deal with traffic and how to get downtown. I also considered briefly trying to make it to the beach Thursday evening and surf or paddle or something. Then I realized the sun would be down about the time I got to the beach.

Tom suggested I not rent a car and just take a taxi to and from the airport, $55 each way. I get a little anxious about airports and flying and all. But, the flight out was just fine. Really very little hassle at security and all. This was only the third time I have flown since 911 and I haven't really relished the thought.

Right after the cabbie dropped me off at the Museum Tower (where the ARB office is) he backed into the car right behind him. I didn't stick around. But, since I was in the lobby for a little bit I did notice that he and the driver of the other car didn't spend a lot of time talking. I don't think there was any visible damage to the car. But, I bet he gave the other driver some cash to forget about it.

I met Chris and we went to lunch at the Omni for their buffet. It was pretty good. Chris showed me around the courthouse. There was a reportable case right when we got there. He introduced me to the guys who report for the competition. We did a lot of sitting around waiting to see if anything was filed. This is right outside the family law office at the Courthouse. So, mostly the people there are divorcing or filing for child support or something like that. Interesting crowd.

There was a lot of downtime. But, we also did enough walking that my feet were quite tired. The taxi ride back to the airport at the end of the day on Friday was interesting. I noticed the car slow down at times and the tachometer race and the driver put the transmission into neutral with a concerned look on his face. We got to the airport fine. But, when I asked him, he said the transmission was acting up and he was taking the car to the shop right away.

The aircraft back to Salt Lake was even smaller than the first. It was only one seat on the left side and two on the right. The flight was arriving about 8:30pm so it was dark when we were coming into Salt Lake. As we were descending I could see the lights of Riverton/Herriman beyond the silhouette of the mountain tops just north of the Eagle Mountain area. Since you can only see out at an angle rather than straight ahead (where the pass would be) it was hard to fight some anxiety as it appeared we were quite close in altitude to the tops of the mountains. A little bit of an illusion. After we cleared the pass I was able to look right down into Kennecott Copper mine all lit up in the dark. It was pretty cool

Ego Sum

I still hear far too many apparently Fox News/Conservative establishment types stating that Mitt Romney is failing to make the case for Republicans. Let's keep in mind that by this time during the 2008 cycle it was essentially a two or three man race. Right now we have a one man, three ego race.

Sorry, more numbers to throw at you:

Mitt Romney has been nothing if he hasn't been consistent in his primary performance. To date he has garnered 55% of the delegates awarded. He only has to win 45% of the remaining to win the nomination. He is the only one of the candidates who doesn't have to improve markedly his performance in order to outright win the nomination. Mr. Santorum would need a turnaround from 27% to 69% and it only gets worse or really bad for Messrs Gingrich and Paul.

In fact, by 24 April, it will most likely become statistically impossible for Ron Paul to win 1144 delegates. His weak performance curve will crash abruptly into his steep need-to-perform-better curve and he will run out of room. His graphs just aren't bending that way and neither are those of anyone else.

Sometime on 8 May, at the current rate, Gingrich meets his unfortunate confluence of graphs.

If we assume (even though, it is very unlikely) that Mr. Paul were to drop out after 24 April and Mr Gingrich after 8 May; And, that all of their vote share were then to go to Mr. Santorum, Mitt Romney still wins the nomination sometime on 5 June (sorry Utah, all your relevance are belong to us.)

Let's look specifically at some of the big-ticket races yet to take place:
Wisconsin - Winner take all - Romney holding a big lead in the polls
Texas - Proportional - Santorum holding a slim lead in the polls with Romney closing
New York - Combination of proportional and winner take all with Romney holding a comfortable lead
California - Winner take all with Romney holding a comfortable lead

I don't know how to spell it out more clearly.

Of course, Mr. Romney could do the selfless thing and drop out for the good of the party and the country as he did last time when he was in second place. As ridiculous as that sounds, he appears to be the only one in the race whose ego isn't forcing him to continue against all better judgment.

ObamaCare on the Loose

I now pay about $800/month in Health Insurance premiums. That's just for Lenore and the kids. ARB pays for me. This is ridiculous. Health Insurance should be a la carte. I'd like it to just cover major medical expenses, major emergencies and catastrophes.

Apples and Oranges

It really is difficult and nonetheless interesting to compare the 2008 GOP Primary election to the 2012 campaign. We haven't yet reached a point similar to 2008 after “super Tuesday.”

We have however, finally reached the point this year where there have been as many states contested as in 2008 after "super Tuesday", a full 6 weeks later in the season this time around. We are still behind schedule as far as available delegates and total popular vote. So, I am trying to compare apples and oranges a little bit here. Like I said before, this year's contest seems designed to be drawn out. In 2008 there were several big state contests conducted on “super Tuesday” 5 February. So, the contest literally was over by then.

With that caveat, here's what I have to say today: As a percentage, Romney has won more of the popular vote (40%) to date in 2012 than McCain had by 6 February 2008 (39%). Santorum has a lot lower percentage (26%) of the popular vote than Romney had when he dropped out in 2008 (32%).

Super Tuesday

The tone in this year's GOP primary season has consistently been one of “Romney's not quite making the case.” I realize that the news people have to find some angle to dish. But, I don't think it is correct and it's becoming tiresome. (If he is the “establishment” choice that is being forced upon the voters, I would think the establishment would quell all the talk of the difficulty he has convincing the voters.)

Disclosure: I do have a dog in this fight. I think Romney is the best man for the job and have made contributions to his campaign. I am LDS (but, I didn't support Huntsman.)

Now, the race may be far from over. But, I've taken a look at some of the numbers and am prepared to make a case: Romney actually had a great night on Super Tuesday 2012; and he is arguably in a better position now than McCain was last time at a similar juncture.

Three of the states Romney won last night, Ohio, Virginia, and Vermont, he made HUGE gains in over his performance in the 2008 primary. Last time around he only had 3%, 4%, and 5% of the vote respectively and placed very low. Granted Santorum and Gingrich weren't on the ballot in Virginia last night. But, that isn't Mitt's fault nor that of his staff.

Mitt may have only eeked out a win in Ohio (and earlier in Michigan.) But, he won in the conservative parts of Ohio as well as in the liberal parts of Ohio. He is way ahead of the game in the overall delegate count, and is way  ahead in the overall popular vote count (3,196,326 to 1,957,727 for Santorum.) I did an analysis of each of the primaries as if the candidates were competing in the Olympics. I awarded them Gold, Silver, and Bronze medals for their finishes. I also then calculated a medal count score awarding them 3 points for a first place finish, 2 for a second, and 1 for a third. Romney is ahead by 29% using this metric. An interesting point: Ron Paul scored ahead of Newt Gingrich in this medal count scoring.

Mitt has improved his performance in most states over the 2008 campaign. In those states where he hasn't done as well, it appears to be Ron Paul and not Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich who is most often  taking voters away from Mitt. The argument could be made that, if someone should drop out of the race, it should be Newt Gingrich. But, I like to remind people that Ron Paul really shouldn't be running as a Republican. He is as Libertarian as they come.  He just wouldn't have a forum for debates and such if he ran as a Libertarian.

This year's race is formatted to be drawn out longer than it was in 2008. Last time “Super Tuesday” was on 5 February and they had completed 31 races by then compared to 23 this time (even one month later.) Mitt dropped out last time on 7 February. If you look at 2008 totals, it looks like Huckabee was the second place finisher. But, when Mitt dropped out he was second in the delegate count. Huckabee gained 59 more delegates after Mitt dropped out. And, after 5 February it was essentially a two-man race, with hanger on Ron Paul in the mix until the very end.

By Super Tuesday in 2008, John McCain had completed 31 primaries and his “medal count” score stood at 61. (BTW Romney was dead even in “medal count score” with McCain when he dropped out in 2008.) This time around after only 23 races Romney's score is 58. John McCain was in better shape in 2008 only because he won California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey, all with large delegate numbers, a total of 338. Those races have yet be contested in 2012.

I might be cutting more slack for Romney than for the others, I admit. But, I trust him...because I have a good idea what kind of a person he is (his service in the Church is testament to that) and he has shown many skills that this country badly needs. Many people are too young to remember Reagan before he became President. We can look back and see that he came off as conservative in the Presidency. And he was. But, much of that came as he matured. And he didn't govern from the far right. I see some of the same qualities in Romney. I have a very conservative outlook, and Mitt appears best to suit my conservative principles. I expect he will appear more conservative after he is elected and allowed to operate.

Mitt and his staff know that there is more room in the middle for votes than at either end. I can draw an analogy from my kids' sparring in Kung Fu. Often their Sifu will have them take on two people. The first principle you use when fighting against two people is you position yourself and move around such that one of your opponents has to fight through the other opponent to get to you. The Santorum and  Gingrich campaigns are trying to appeal to the most conservative factions. But, when they go looking for more voters to support them, the only place they can look to is in the middle. And, that is where Mitt has staked his ground.

It's a little comical when Santorum, Gingrich, or Paul point out that Romney has access to more funds than they do. In 2008 Mitt spent a lot of his own money to campaign. That may be one reason he pulled out earlyish when he was in second place. The bulk of his funds this time have come from donors. That's another metric that looks a lot like the votes that the others aren't getting.

He is a great analyst, decision maker, business leader. An administrator, not a politician, the man we need to bring us back from the brink.

Romneycare is arguably Romney's biggest problem. But, there is more difference between the Massachusetts program and Obama's program than even Mitt has noted. Once, he becomes the nominee, this goes away because Obama is not going to attack him on it. That is the president's biggest piece of political baggage. Once again Obama would have to fight through Mitt to get to the voters he was trying to pick up, and upset his leftmost base in the process.

The issue that will be the at the forefront between Obama and Romney will be the 1% versus the 99%. This is the issue that leftists want to campaign on. They think they can hurt Romney here. Don't buy into the establishment candidate argument. The left will try to tell the country that it was establishment Wall Street who gave us Romney. I don't think it will work.

-Todd Lillywhite

O Divine Redeemer

Singers will understand. But, I'll try to help the rest of you.

Our neighbor Geri Suzuki left at the beginning of the year to serve as a missionary for our Church in New Jersey. She has considerable nursing, administrative, musical skills et al. Early in December she asked me to sing at her "farewell" Church service. I was happy to oblige. She eventually requested that I sing O Divine Redeemer by Gounod.

When I was a kid this was one of those songs that would make me cringe. I have since grown to be very fond of it. I remember dropping into the Stake Center for some reason or another once on a Sunday years ago and hearing a young woman sing it very well. It's nice to be able to sing the upper notes without having to belt them. She was able to.

I quickly decided to sing the version for the medium voice (goes to G). The low was easy enough. But, doesn't really showcase my better range. The high version is probably just too high. And I'm a scaredy cat, I've never sung this before. And, while it may not be the most difficult piece. I think most people who have sung it would agree that it is within about 99% of the most difficult pieces.

With my "aging" voice, if I'm not singing everyday or close to it, it's a grab bag what my strength and range will be when I try to sing. I have to practice consistently for about three weeks at least to get back up to some semblance of condition.

Anyway, I got together with Christy Anderson, who is a GEM, and practiced, and recorded the accompaniment so I could practice without her. I worked on it and fretted over it and when the time came I was in pretty good voice. It went off just fine. Actually maybe even better than I wanted. I don't have the typical Tenor voice. I have never been able to really develop my full voice above E or F. I DO have a VERY strong falsetto that, when I am in shape, can go at least to B or B#. Sometimes though while my falsetto might be doing fine, I might still have a bit of a hole in my break. I just try to negotiate it as best as possible.

A note: I have been using beta blockers when I perform solos for at least 15 years or so. While in the past there was always at least a small amount of anxiety during the first phrase or so, this time there was practically nothing. That medication is really a godsend for performers.

Sick Week

Last week Laney was out sick Mon-Thurs and I was sick on Wed and Thurs. So we had a little fun togetherness:) On the Wednesday our refrigerator was going on the fritz. We were not liking the prospect of buying a new one. This one is only 13 years old. Lenore remembered that Lane's friend Mattie's dad repairs appliances. So, I called him. He came out pretty quick and repaired the thing in about an hour. Total charge: $100. It is now working great. Funny thing. Almost since day one this fridge made some odd noises, sounded like sparks or water dripping on something hot. Well, it no longer makes that noise. He replaced a blower that he thinks shorted out. Probably has been hanging on for a long time.

Thursday evening was the time of finding lost things. It had snowed recently and Lenore remarked to me that she didn't have a snow brush in her car. I was pretty sure she really did. So, I went out in the garage to investigate. I found it under the rear seat of her Explorer. But, it was wedged under the seat really tight. So, I had to unlatch the seat and fold it down and then lift up the part on the back that covers the gap between the floor and the folded down seat. I got her brush out and then lo and behold I also found Laney's IPOD shuffle which has been missing for about 2 years and had since been replaced. Now, I know I had gotten into that space more than once to clean or get the spare tire crank thingy. We surmise that it must have just recently fallen all the way down into that area from somewhere.

Alisa had gone down to Provo for a class on their upcoming Wales Study Abroad that Jensen and she are doing. The class went somewhat late and they went to get some food afterward and had gone some other places. We got a frantic call from them saying that Ailsa couldn't find her wallet. She had it at one place and put it in her back pocket and then later it was nowhere to be found. She wanted me to see if I could see any activity on the her debit card online. Didn't see anything. They were beside themselves and couldn't logically think what to do. We told them to pray and retrace their steps. Well, they searched around their various stops for about and hour and found it back in the parking lot of the place they last used her card. They couldn't remember where they had parked so they were looking all over. Jensen saw a rectangular shape under a slight covering of snow and there it was. She's pretty blessed/lucky. Would hate to have to go through the hassle of cancelling things and re-obtaining id's.

Last time I lost my wallet was at Doheny when I was 18/19. I was glad to get it back later (a couple of weeks, I had already gotten a duplicate driver's license.) Martin Becker and I drove down to San Clemente to pick it up from the police. Of course we took the opportunity to go surfing. We hoped that what little cash I had had would still be in the wallet. No dice. We were hungry so we scrounged all through his Peugot looking for spare change and came up with something a little over a dollar and bought some donuts in San Clemente. Mmmmm.

Sock Hop Fun

Laney was very excited about this school activity. She's here in the picture with Mayor Snarr, his moustache, and his motorcycle, and some of her pals.